Burst patterns, characterized by their temporal heterogeneity, have been observed across a wide range of domains, encompassing event sequences from neuronal firing to various facets of human activities. Recent research on predicting event sequences leveraged a Transformer based on the Hawkes process, incorporating a self-attention mechanism to capture long-term temporal dependencies. To effectively handle bursty temporal patterns, we propose a Burst and Memory-aware Transformer (BMT) model, designed to explicitly address temporal heterogeneity. The BMT model embeds the burstiness and memory coefficient into the self-attention module, enhancing the learning process with insights derived from the bursty patterns. Furthermore, we employed a novel loss function designed to optimize the burstiness and memory coefficient values, as well as their corresponding discretized one-hot vectors, both individually and jointly. Numerical experiments conducted on diverse synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrated the outstanding performance of the BMT model in terms of accurately predicting event times and intensity functions compared to existing models and control groups. In particular, the BMT model exhibits remarkable performance for temporally heterogeneous data, such as those with power-law inter-event time distributions. Our findings suggest that the incorporation of burst-related parameters assists the Transformer in comprehending heterogeneous event sequences, leading to an enhanced predictive performance.
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Dr. David Lowemann, M.Sc, Ph.D., is a co-founder of the Institute for the Future of Human Potential, where he leads the charge in pioneering Self-Enhancement Science for the Success of Society. With a keen interest in exploring the untapped potential of the human mind, Dr. Lowemann has dedicated his career to pushing the boundaries of human capabilities and understanding.
Armed with a Master of Science degree and a Ph.D. in his field, Dr. Lowemann has consistently been at the forefront of research and innovation, delving into ways to optimize human performance, cognition, and overall well-being. His work at the Institute revolves around a profound commitment to harnessing cutting-edge science and technology to help individuals lead more fulfilling and intelligent lives.
Dr. Lowemann’s influence extends to the educational platform BetterSmarter.me, where he shares his insights, findings, and personal development strategies with a broader audience. His ongoing mission is shaping the way we perceive and leverage the vast capacities of the human mind, offering invaluable contributions to society’s overall success and collective well-being.