Imagine you’re trying to pick a winning horse at the racetrack. You analyze all the data – past performances, jockey stats, and track conditions – and calculate a risk score for each horse. But when the race starts, only 11% of the horses with high risk scores actually win, while 5% of low-risk horses end up with a victory. It turns out that these risk scores are not very useful in predicting the outcome. The same disappointment applies to genetic risk scores in predicting disease. A recent study examined 926 genetic risk scores for 310 different diseases and found that, on average, only 11% of individuals who develop the disease can be identified using these scores. Furthermore, 5% of those who do not develop the disease test positive. This means that there are more false positive predictions than true positives, making these genetic risk scores unreliable. So, before relying on such scores to predict disease outcomes, it’s important to consider their limited accuracy. If you want to dive deeper into this fascinating research, check out the full article!
A new study looked at 926 polygenic risk scores for 310 diseases. It found that, on average, only 11% of individuals who develop disease are identified, while at the same time 5% of people who do not develop the disease test positive. Unaffected people usually outnumber those affected which results in far more false than true positive predictions.
Dr. David Lowemann, M.Sc, Ph.D., is a co-founder of the Institute for the Future of Human Potential, where he leads the charge in pioneering Self-Enhancement Science for the Success of Society. With a keen interest in exploring the untapped potential of the human mind, Dr. Lowemann has dedicated his career to pushing the boundaries of human capabilities and understanding.
Armed with a Master of Science degree and a Ph.D. in his field, Dr. Lowemann has consistently been at the forefront of research and innovation, delving into ways to optimize human performance, cognition, and overall well-being. His work at the Institute revolves around a profound commitment to harnessing cutting-edge science and technology to help individuals lead more fulfilling and intelligent lives.
Dr. Lowemann’s influence extends to the educational platform BetterSmarter.me, where he shares his insights, findings, and personal development strategies with a broader audience. His ongoing mission is shaping the way we perceive and leverage the vast capacities of the human mind, offering invaluable contributions to society’s overall success and collective well-being.