Innovative tool predicts stroke risk in middle-aged and elderly population

Published on June 14, 2023

Imagine if you had a crystal ball that could foresee your health future. Well, scientists have come pretty close to that with the development of a predictive risk stratification tool for identifying the population at risk for new-onset stroke within 7 years. Just like weather forecasting helps us prepare for potential storms, this tool uses multidimensional risk factors to predict who is at high risk for stroke. The researchers used data from over 5,800 people aged 45 and above and discovered nine key predictors, including low physical performance and the triglyceride-glucose index, that contributed to stroke risk. By using a nomogram, which is like a roadmap, they created a risk stratification system that accurately classified individuals into low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. This innovative tool has proven its effectiveness in both internal and external validations. With a prevalence of 3.36%, 8.32%, and 20.13% for new-onset stroke at the 7-year mark, it’s clear that this tool can provide valuable insights for healthcare professionals and help individuals take preventive measures. So don’t wait, go ahead and explore the underlying research to learn more about how this predictive tool can potentially save lives!

Background and purposeWith the acceleration of the aging process of society, stroke has become a major health problem in the middle-aged and elderly population. A number of new stroke risk factors have been recently found. It is necessary to develop a predictive risk stratification tool using multidimensional risk factors to identify people at high risk for stroke.MethodsThe study included 5,844 people (age ≥ 45 years) who participated in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study in 2011 and its follow-up up to 2018. The population samples were divided into training set and validation set according to 1:1. A LASSO Cox screening was performed to identify the predictors of new-onset stroke. A nomogram was developed, and the population was stratified according to the score calculated through the X-tile program. Internal and external verifications of the nomogram were performed by ROC and calibration curves, and the Kaplan-Meier method was applied to identify the performance of the risk stratification system.ResultsThe LASSO Cox regression screened out 13 candidate predictors from 50 risk factors. Finally, nine predictors, including low physical performance and the triglyceride-glucose index, were included in the nomogram. The nomogram’s overall performance was good in both internal and external validations (AUCs at 3-, 5-, and 7-year periods were 0.71, 0.71, and 0.71 in the training set and 0.67, 0.65, and 0.66 in the validation set, respectively). The nomogram was proven to excellently discriminate between the low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, with a prevalence of 7-year new-onset stroke of 3.36, 8.32, and 20.13%, respectively (P < 0.001).ConclusionThis research developed a clinical predictive risk stratification tool that can effectively identify the different risks of new-onset stroke in 7 years in the middle-aged and elderly Chinese population.

Read Full Article (External Site)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes:

<a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>