We examine the opportunities and challenges of expert judgment in the social sciences, scrutinizing the way social scientists make predictions. While social scientists show above-chance accuracy in predicting laboratory-based phenomena, they often struggle to predict real-world societal changes. We argue that most causal models used in social sciences are oversimplified, confuse levels of analysis to […]

Psychology is crucial for understanding human history. When aggregated, changes in the psychology of individuals – in the intensity of social trust, parental care, or intellectual curiosity – can lead to important changes in institutions, social norms, and cultures. However, studying the role of psychology in shaping human history has been hindered by the difficulty […]

BackgroundMotor symptoms are well-characterized in Parkinson’s disease (PD). However, non-motor symptoms, such as depression, are commonly observed and can appear up to 10 years before motor features, resulting in one-third of individuals being misdiagnosed with a neuropsychiatric disorder. Thus, identifying diagnostic biomarkers is crucial for accurate PD diagnosis during its prodromal or early stages.MethodsWe employed […]