ObjectiveTo analyze the validity of self and informant reports, depressive symptomatology, and some sociodemographic variables to predict the risk of cognitive decline at different follow-up times.MethodsA total of 337 participants over 50 years of age included in the CompAS and classified as Cognitively Unimpaired (CU), Subjective Cognitive Decline (SCD) and Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) groups were assessed at baseline and three follow-ups. A short version of the QAM was administered to assess the severity of subjective cognitive complaints (SCCs), and the GDS-15 was used to evaluate the depressive symptoms. At each follow-up assessment, participants were reclassified according to the stability, regression or progression of their conditions. Logistic regression analysis was used to predict which CU, SCD and MCI participants would remain stable, regress or progress at a 3rd follow-up by using self- and informant-reported complaints, depressive symptomatology, age and education at baseline and 2nd follow-ups as the predictive variables.ResultsOverall, self-reported complaints predicted progression between the asymptomatic and presymptomatic stages. As the objective deterioration increased, i.e., when SCD progressed to MCI or dementia, the SCCs reported by informants proved the best predictors of progression. Depressive symptomatology was also a predictor of progression from CU to SCD and from SCD to MCI.ConclusionA late increase in self-reported complaints make valid estimates to predict subjective decline at asymptomatic stages. However, an early increase in complaints reported by informants was more accurate in predicting objective decline from asymptomatic stages. Both, early and late decrease in self-reported complaints successfully predict dementia from prodromic stage. Only late decrease in self-reported complaints predict reversion from prodromic and pre-symptomatic stages.

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