In this increasingly uncertain world, effectively conveying uncertainty to different audiences is crucial. Rather than using specific numerical probabilities, senders often rely on verbal cues to express uncertainty, such as saying something is ‘likely.’ However, these verbal probabilities can sometimes be misleading, as they may also convey confidence or hide mistakes. It’s like trying to decipher a secret code with hidden meanings! Senders can strategically use these verbal cues to maintain credibility even when their predictions turn out to be incorrect. To ensure accurate and transparent communication, it’s important for both senders and receivers to understand the limitations and potential biases associated with different methods of expressing uncertainty. This goes beyond just climate science and applies to any domain where uncertainty plays a role. Understanding how to effectively navigate this complexity is vital for informed decision-making processes. To dive deeper into this topic, check out the research article linked above!

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g., likely) rather than numeric (e.g., 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains, such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions.

Read Full Article (External Site)