Appropriate levels of arousal potential induce hedonic responses (i.e., emotional valence). However, the relationship between arousal potential and its factors (e.g., novelty, complexity, and uncertainty) have not been formalized. This paper proposes a mathematical model that explains emotional arousal using minimized free energy to represent information content processed in the brain after sensory stimuli are perceived and recognized (i.e., sensory surprisal). This work mathematically demonstrates that sensory surprisal represents the summation of information from novelty and uncertainty, and that the uncertainty converges to perceived complexity with sufficient sampling from a stimulus source. Novelty, uncertainty, and complexity all act as collative properties that form arousal potential. Analysis using a Gaussian generative model shows that the free energy is formed as a quadratic function of prediction errors based on the difference between prior expectation and peak of likelihood. The model predicts two interaction effects on free energy: that between prediction error and prior uncertainty (i.e., prior variance) and that between prediction error and sensory variance. A discussion on the potential of free energy as a mathematical principle is presented to explain emotion initiators. The model provides a general mathematical framework for understanding and predicting the emotions caused by novelty, uncertainty, and complexity. The mathematical model of arousal can help predict acceptable novelty and complexity based on a target population under different uncertainty levels mitigated by prior knowledge and experience.

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