BackgroundIdentifying persons at risk for cognitive decline may aid in early detection of persons at risk of dementia and to select those that would benefit most from therapeutic or preventive measures for dementia.ObjectiveIn this study we aimed to validate whether cognitive decline in the general population can be predicted with multivariate data using a previously proposed supervised classification method: Disease State Index (DSI).MethodsWe included 2,542 participants, non-demented and without mild cognitive impairment at baseline, from the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age 60.9 ± 9.1 years). Participants with significant global cognitive decline were defined as the 5% of participants with the largest cognitive decline per year. We trained DSI to predict occurrence of significant global cognitive decline using a large variety of baseline features, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features, cardiovascular risk factors, APOE-ε4 allele carriership, gait features, education, and baseline cognitive function as predictors. The prediction performance was assessed as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), using 500 repetitions of 2-fold cross-validation experiments, in which (a randomly selected) half of the data was used for training and the other half for testing.ResultsA mean AUC (95% confidence interval) for DSI prediction was 0.78 (0.77–0.79) using only age as input feature. When using all available features, a mean AUC of 0.77 (0.75–0.78) was obtained. Without age, and with age-corrected features and feature selection on MRI features, a mean AUC of 0.70 (0.63–0.76) was obtained, showing the potential of other features besides age.ConclusionThe best performance in the prediction of global cognitive decline in the general population by DSI was obtained using only age as input feature. Other features showed potential, but did not improve prediction. Future studies should evaluate whether the performance could be improved by new features, e.g., longitudinal features, and other prediction methods.
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Dr. David Lowemann, M.Sc, Ph.D., is a co-founder of the Institute for the Future of Human Potential, where he leads the charge in pioneering Self-Enhancement Science for the Success of Society. With a keen interest in exploring the untapped potential of the human mind, Dr. Lowemann has dedicated his career to pushing the boundaries of human capabilities and understanding.
Armed with a Master of Science degree and a Ph.D. in his field, Dr. Lowemann has consistently been at the forefront of research and innovation, delving into ways to optimize human performance, cognition, and overall well-being. His work at the Institute revolves around a profound commitment to harnessing cutting-edge science and technology to help individuals lead more fulfilling and intelligent lives.
Dr. Lowemann’s influence extends to the educational platform BetterSmarter.me, where he shares his insights, findings, and personal development strategies with a broader audience. His ongoing mission is shaping the way we perceive and leverage the vast capacities of the human mind, offering invaluable contributions to society’s overall success and collective well-being.